Canada Next

Canada Next: MaRS CEO on the future for startups

sgupta — Tue, 02 Feb 2016 08:08:21 +0000

Canada Next: MaRS CEO on the future for startups sgupta Tue, 02/02/2016 - 03:08

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A young man interested in entrepreneurship speaks to representatives from MaRS at the 2015 Startup Career Expo. "�Թϱ�� is increasingly a “driving force” for startups", says Ilse Treurnicht, CEO of MaRS Discovery District.

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Canada is good at creating startup companies but not enough of them are high-growth enterprises, the so-called gazelles of the industry, says Ilse Treurnicht, CEO of the MaRS Discovery District.

But the good news, she says, is that �Թϱ�� is increasingly a “driving force” for startups, helping them not just to thrive but to succeed in Canada so that the economic benefits accrue to this country.

The Global Entrepreneurship and Development Institute recently released a global entrepreneurship index that placed Canada second, behind the United States.

�Թϱ�� asked Treurnicht for her analysis of the survey and her views about some recent stories in the media about Canada and entrepreneurship, including an op-ed piece in the Globe and Mail co-authored by President Meric Gertler: “Southern Ontario should be an innovation cluster, not a farm team.”

The survey, she said, was a valid one and “another indication that entrepreneurship is important everywhere, and that Toronto has some good fundamentals in place, and that we have some areas where we can probably grow.”

Data on startups in Canada is relatively sparse but statistics from the U.S. and the U.K. suggest “that out of 100 startups somewhere between four and 10 become high-growth industries, the so-called gazelles.”

Treurnicht (pictured at left) described a gazelle as a company that that increases its revenues by at least 20 per cent annually for four years or more, starting from a revenue base of at least $1 million.

Gazelles “grow quite quickly and are major job creators, major contributors to revenue and economic growth,” Treurnicht said. “Starting up a company is important but it is not sufficient, you have to start more robust companies and more of them have to grow to scale.

“Canada is pretty good at starting companies but we don’t have enough of them that grow to scale.”

Our companies face “small local markets, and eco-systems that are still maturing,” she said. “We don’t have the serial entrepreneurs that they have in Silicon Valley.”

In Canada, the capital contributions made to startups is about one-third of what it is in the U.S.

“A lot of startups have to be international companies because the markets are so small here," she said. There are good reasons why so few become gazelles. “It’s not like we are stupid.”

Still, there are grounds for optimism, Treurnicht said.

“Over the last 10 years �Թϱ�� has helped build the ecosystem in Toronto and the GTA. There is now a huge appetite among students to participate in such companies, and a growing appreciation among faculty, especially young faculty, to participate.”

The survey suggests Canada is poised to do great things, she added.

Treurnicht said the barriers to starting a company are very low, especially in the high-tech field. Companies focused on health care, “advanced materials” or artificial intelligence – firms with “hard-core intellectual property heft" – take a bit longer to develop so they require more investment.

But the “deep technology competency and the feeder system” coming out of �Թϱ�� “is as good quality as the rest of the world,” she said. That means that more companies “will grow right here, with the economic benefits accruing to Canada.”

“This is a story about the growing momentum of �Թϱ�� being a key force in making startups more successful. That is the message we want to get out. Stay tuned. There is a lot more come.”

Three to Watch

The majority of companies that have homes at the MaRS centre “have serious roots back to �Թϱ��,” Treurnicht said. They include Nanoleaf, Teabot and Chipcare.

Gimmy Chu, one of the University of Toronto alumni behind startup success Nanoleaf, with the revolutionary light bulb backed by investors around the world. Photo by Johnny Guatto.

Carolyn Bennett talks with �Թϱ��

sgupta — Tue, 12 Jan 2016 08:47:31 +0000

Carolyn Bennett talks with �Թϱ�� sgupta Tue, 01/12/2016 - 03:47

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“From my early days at �Թϱ��, whether playing hockey or just being a small number of us women in medicine, we were always trying to find our voice,” Carolyn Bennett says (photo courtesy Carolyn Bennett)

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Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs on the importance of “giving a voice to people who don’t have a voice”

When Carolyn Bennett announced a federal inquiry into murdered and missing Indigenous women and girls she was wearing a t-shirt that proclaimed “honour our sisters.”

Bennett, named Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs after the Oct. 19, 2015 election, has been honouring her sisters ever since her days as a student at the University of Toronto and for most of her adult life as a doctor and advocate not only for women but for those in poverty – “giving a voice to people who don’t have a voice,” she says.

In an interview with �Թϱ��, Bennett talked about her days at �Թϱ�� as both a student and an assistant professor, and about her portfolio, which has her taking on the monumental task of helping families deal with the horrific loss of their loved ones, but also to seek ways to prevent such tragedies from happening again. An RCMP report in 2014 said there were 1,181 missing and murdered indigenous women and girls in Canada.

“From my early days at �Թϱ��, whether playing hockey or just being a small number of us women in medicine, we were always trying to find our voice,” she said. Bennett graduated with a degree in medicine in 1974.

“My voice became clear in the fight to save Women’s College Hospital” in 1989, when she successfully opposed a merger and preserved the unique nature of the hospital’s services, which focuses on patients becoming full partners in their care.

“It was also a fight about social determinants of health, particularly violence and poverty – fighting for that hospital was the beginning of my political career.”

The approach taken at the hospital was the same approach the new Liberal government is taking, she said – “not what we do but how.”

The Ontario Liberal party approached Bennett to run in the 1995 provincial election. “I said I don’t know anything about politics, but I was told what you did with the hospital was political. I didn’t know that, and have always called myself an accident political tourist, just fighting for something you believe in, in particular fighting for people who don’t have their own voices.”

She lost provincially in 1995 but won in the federal riding of St. Paul’s in downtown Toronto in 1997, and has been re-elected five times since. As chair of the Liberal women’s caucus she supported a national action plan to address violence against women and founded a Women in House program along with �Թϱ�� PhD candidate Tina Park, seeking to elect more women to the House of Commons.

Canada Next: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the world stage

sgupta — Fri, 27 Nov 2015 15:27:44 +0000

Canada Next: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the world stage sgupta Fri, 11/27/2015 - 10:27

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British Prime Minister David Cameron welcomes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Downing Street on Nov. 25 (photo by Georgina Coupe/Crown Copyright via Flickr)

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Political expert Peter Loewen analyzes Trudeau's performance, impact

For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the G20 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits last week were an opportunity for world leaders to meet the new face of Canada.

In between the selfie requests from delegates, being mobbed in Manila by shrieking fans and cracking jokes with President Barack Obama, Trudeau discussed refugees, economic growth and climate change and delivered a pointed message: Canada is a country that defines itself by its shared values, not its cultural differences.

Assistant Professor Peter Loewen of political science is the director of the Centre for the Study of the United States at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs. He spoke to �Թϱ�� about Trudeau’s debut on the world stage.

How did Trudeau do at the G20 and APEC, as the world grappled with terror attacks in Paris, Beirut and Mali?
I think Trudeau made a great first impression. He was well received, and he was confident, and he did this all under trying circumstances. These events are highly choreographed, which in some ways reduces risk, but they also offer limited opportunities for genuine influence, for a strong moment, or for a decisive encounter. For example, I imagine that Trudeau’s insistence that he would stand up to Putin was about as effective as Harper’s effort to do the same during their last meeting.

So, the question is more about whether he was good enough and not about impact. Whether he had one is another matter. We shouldn’t expect too much of such meetings. Most the work is done before, so there is not a lot of room to influence outcomes.

Now, with all of that said, there is one more final consideration. Trudeau comes into these meetings as the most junior (or among the most junior heads of government). This matters, because many of these leaders have had a lot of interaction with each other, and he’s had very little, obviously. This makes it hard to compare him with the impact that Harper might have had, for example. But it also highlights that Trudeau has a lot of room to grow, to build relationships, and to make the most out of these meetings in the future. The fact that his first meetings went well is perhaps a good sign going forward.

How was Canada’s response on refugee resettlement and ISIS − affirming Canada’s withdrawal of air strikes and vowing to add more military trainers − received by other world leaders?
On the first issue, I suspect the White House was pleased to have Canada providing an example of an open and relatively ambitious response. The response of the American public, and especially the response of their representatives, has been, frankly, disappointing and even shocking. I can appreciate very much that the public has concerns about refugees. They don’t know the ins and outs of migration, of how terrorist acts are planned, or of how refugees are resettled. We can, for a time, forgive them their lack of information while still wishing more of them.

But for politicians to do what the US Congress has done, and do what so many governors have done, essentially saying there are no circumstances under which refugees would be welcomed and supported – that puts them very much on the wrong side of history. I imagine President Obama looks at the Canadian example with some interest and surely some envy.

On the ISIS withdrawal of jets, I suspect this is a wait-and-see issue. Canada can make a great contribution even without fighter jets, but we will have to see what that is. We will also have to see whether Canada’s commitment changes as France increases its campaign to have other parties join the fighting more actively and more deeply.

Did anything come out of the meeting with Obama that signals to you that there’s a changed relationship with the U.S.?
Nothing material, actually. Has Keystone XL been approved, for example? My own sense is that perhaps 95 per cent of issues between Canada and the US are determined by economic and political logics. The remaining five per cent has to do with the personalities and warmth of the two leaders. We shouldn’t expect much of these meetings and we should keep the pressure on the American government to take a reasonable approach towards the production of oil in North America.

What are some issues Trudeau and Obama can bond over, or where they will differentiate?
I have no idea, to be honest. I often wonder how world leaders have any time for friends. It will be interesting, however, to see whether they do develop the kind of personal connections that might allow them to do some big things in the time Obama has left. I certainly think it’s the case that the relationship between Brian Mulroney and Ronald Reagan, and then George HW Bush was helpful at the margins for things like addressing acid rain and marshalling support for the first Gulf War.

Perhaps Trudeau and Obama can develop enough of a rapport to move the needle on the five per cent of things that are really open for discussion.

(See the original of the above photo on Flickr)

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Canada Next: Munk panels on terrorism, ISIS and the global refugee crisis

sgupta — Tue, 24 Nov 2015 14:07:45 +0000

Canada Next: Munk panels on terrorism, ISIS and the global refugee crisis sgupta Tue, 11/24/2015 - 09:07

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“If we show that we react we will start to get played like a violin,” Aisha Ahmad, assistant professor of political science, told the packed room (above photo and middle photo by Johnny Guatto/ bottom photo courtesy Tina Park)

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The University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs held two sessions about terrorism on Nov. 20, with one over-arching theme emerging:

To suggest that Canada and other countries stop accepting Syrian refugees in the wake of the ISIS attacks in Paris is both ludicrous and immoral.

The first event, organized by the Canadian Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, brought together alumnae and faculty to discuss understanding the ISIL and confronting non-state terrorism.

The second event, held just a few hours later, brought panelists from �Թϱ��, Waterloo and Carleton to debate the ISIS attacks and their meaning for immigration, security and refugees.

�Թϱ�� professor Randall Hansen told the later session that “the attack on Paris constituted, as Francois Hollande said, an act of war. ISIS has launched an attack on a NATO member state.”

Hansen said, “our overriding goal after Paris, after Beirut, after untold atrocities committed against Muslims, our goal should be the destruction of ISIS. The only question is how.”

He also said “the events in Paris have nothing, absolutely nothing to do with refugees. Despite earlier reports, none of the terrorists was a refugee, and the overwhelming number of refugees coming to Europe now are fleeing war, poverty and state breakdown. They are running from, not with, ISIS.” Hansen is director of the Centre for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at the Munk school.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had commited to taking in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of 2015 but the federal government announced on Nov. 24 that it is altering the timeframe, with the deadline now Feb. 29, 2016 instead of the end of 2015.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Nov. 19 to tighten controls on Syrian and Iraqi refugees and 31 Governors say they will not accept them into their states.

Stephen Toope, director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and the moderator of the late afternoon session, said the vote in the U.S. Congress is “absolutely illegal under law and absolutely immoral.”

He said the Syrians are legitimate refugees with a “well-founded fear of persecution” and countries “have a duty to protect, and a duty not to expel them from your borders.”

Assistant Professor Aisha Ahmad, a specialist in international security at the Munk School, said Canada should not alter its commitment to accepting Syrian refugees. “We should not react because it [the Paris attacks that killed 130 people] was intended to force a reaction. Staying firm on the course on refugees is critical,” she said.

“If we show that we react we will start to get played like a violin. It is not safe, it is not appropriate that we behave reactively to attacks like this,” Ahmad said. Canadian government policy should be “based on evidence, reason and maximizing our security interests while staying true to our Canadian values.”

Toope posed a question to the panelists written by an audience member: “What would success look like in the fight against ISIS?”

Ahmad said “a key priority is to undercut their financing.” She had noted earlier that ISIS is the richest terrorist organization in history, bringing in billions of dollars from oil wells in captured areas; the selling of seized antiquities on the black market and taxing both citizens and businesses in Syria and Iraq. ISIS even has its own currency, she said.

“If you push them out of their territorial strongholds and they no longer get to behave like the imaginary state that they think they are, they start to act like all the other crappy jihadist terrorist organizations around the world and they’re not as sexy anymore …you will start to see their appeal decline.”

Lorne Dawson, a professor in the department of sociology and legal studies at the University of Waterloo, said “we have to de-legitimize the movement, strip away what sociologists would call the structural plausibility of this group – that is about degrading them, about cutting off the supply of foreign fighters and perhaps decapitating the leadership.”

Dawson said ISIS “is an organization [that] by its internal structure and rationale for existence [shows that] as it is cornered, it will be absolutely vicious in its capacity to lash out, and they do have those foreign fighters. We have to steel ourselves to paying a real price” in attacking ISIS. “There will be terrorist attacks in the west; there will be more Parises…we have to steel ourselves in blood to accomplish the greater purpose.”

ISIS, Ahmad said, is in an “ideological battle” with the west and its members are firmly convinced that non-believers are “apostates and sinners, and must be killed, and that includes refugees.”

To have western countries accept refugees “is a tremendous blow to the ISIS narrative that it, and only it, can protect them.” Ahmad noted that Canada is taking in women, mothers and their children, and ISIS hardly sees them as possible insurgents strapping bombs to their bodies.

The earlier session, sponsored by the Canadian Centre to Protect, based at the Munk School, heard from Arne Kislenko, an adjunct professor in the international relations program at the Munk School for International Studies.

Kislenko, who worked for Canada Immigration at Pearson airport, said he has interviewed terrorists and he is quite nervous about politicians connecting the Paris attacks to accepting or rejecting refugees.

“Saying things like ‘we have to rope it in to make sure that our national security is honoured’ is ludicrous,” Kislenko said. “It’s ludicrous. To the best of my knowledge none of the perpetrators was actually linked in any way, shape or form” to Syria.

“And frankly even if they were, I say very bluntly, we are a civil society” and should accept refugees, Kislenko added.

Kathleen Davis, who is completing her doctorate in international law at �Թϱ��, said it is important to not react harshly to the terrorist attacks by blocking refugees.

“I think the natural inclination as we have seen on social media (with people saying no to accepting refugees) and in other forums is to allow fear and anger to be our guide. But fear and anger are never good advisers.”

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Canada Next: John Tory on the future of Canadian cities and the role of �Թϱ��

sgupta — Wed, 18 Nov 2015 08:52:11 +0000

Canada Next: John Tory on the future of Canadian cities and the role of �Թϱ�� sgupta Wed, 11/18/2015 - 03:52

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“�Թϱ�� is in the top 20 [universities] in the world and it is a huge selling point in terms of attracting not only investment but attracting the best and brightest to Toronto,” John Tory says (photo by Bora vs. Bora via Instagram)

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“The better the city is, the better �Թϱ�� is, and vice versa.”

When Toronto Mayor John Tory meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in December he will be heartened by indications from the PM that he is “friendly to cities.”

Tory, a �Թϱ�� alumnus (Trinity College, 1975), told �Թϱ�� that he discussed the role of cities in telephone conversations with Trudeau during the recent election campaign. If the new government keeps its commitments, he said, Canadians will be "better off when it comes to investment in transit, housing and other infrastructure projects in cities.”

Tory said he is heartened by the Liberals' stated willingness to run a deficit. “Often in the past, parties make commitments, but when they get into government say, ‘things are much worse than we thought, and the money just isn’t there.’ In this case, they fully acknowledge the price to be paid for the expansion of transit and infrastructure.”

The mayor noted that Trudeau’s funding commitment extends to public housing.

“There is no daylight between us as mayors, at least big-city mayors, that the two issues that require the most assistance from other levels of government on an urgent basis are transit and housing.”

Another encouraging sign from the new federal government is Trudeau’s commitment to “having the cities at the table with him to discuss our issues, something that hasn’t been done often. And he has committed to an annual conference with big-city mayors, something that has never been done.”

To further emphasize the point, Tory pointed to the letters of mandate Trudeau sent to all members of his cabinet. “In almost every case he sees a significant role for cities, either in investments or cities giving advice to the federal government. That is a change for the better.”

Tory is working closely with the �Թϱ�� on several fronts. City Council agreed earlier this year to ask Professor Eric Miller, the research director of �Թϱ��’s Transportation Research Institute, to do a study on TTC ridership, which is due in January.

(Image below by Sean_Marshall via flickr)

The Mowat Centre, an independent think tank located at the School of Public Policy & Governance at �Թϱ��, released two reports recently on “community benefit agreements” (CBAs) and anchor institutions, of which �Թϱ�� is one. Both rely on public-private partnerships (P3s) for major projects.

Canada Next: why this country should welcome 25,000 Syrian refugees

sgupta — Thu, 12 Nov 2015 12:33:51 +0000

Canada Next: why this country should welcome 25,000 Syrian refugees sgupta Thu, 11/12/2015 - 07:33

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(photo by Mohamed Azakir / World Bank via flickr)

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Refugee crisis is rooted in past, says director of Centre for Diaspora and Transnational Studies

Ask Ato Quayson about the Syrian refugee crisis and he‘ll start talking about the end of the Ottoman Empire.

The director of �Թϱ��’s Centre for Diaspora and Transnational Studies isn't trying to duck the question. And he knows the subject is urgent – the new federal cabinet met on Nov.12 to discuss just how to bring 25,000 refugees to Canada.

He’s trying to explain that not only do the roots of the current crisis lie in the past, but that refugees have been fleeing failed states for many years.

Canada Next: researchers explain what the return of the long-form census means for Canada

sgupta — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 14:46:26 +0000

Canada Next: researchers explain what the return of the long-form census means for Canada sgupta Tue, 11/10/2015 - 09:46

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The long-form census is “extremely critical” in determining demographic trends, says Timothy Chan. “The more granular the data, the better.”

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Alan Walks: “It was actually harming Canadian business, harming the competitive aspect of businesses and entrepreneurs not to have this data”

The new federal Liberal government is bringing back the long-form census for 2016 and no one is more grateful than University of Toronto researchers.

The 61-page census was killed by the former Conservative government in 2011 prompting outrage from urban planners, health care advocates, scientists and demographers.

On Nov. 5, one day after being sworn in as minister of innovation, science and economic development, Navdeep Bains announced the return of the mandatory census, saying “we need good, reliable data.” Most Canadians receive the short census of about six pages but 2.9 million households will get the longer one in May.

There is a financial penalty for not filling it out, but Bains did not specify what it would be. In 2006, 93.5 per cent of the population filled out the forms.

Professor Michael Carter in the department of mechanical and industrial engineering said “we are very grateful, so pleased to know it is back. We were very upset about” not having it.

The long census had substantial practical benefits, he said. Carter is founder and now co-director of the Centre for Research and Healthcare Engineering. He has worked on projects with hospitals, on home care, long-term care, medical labs and mental health institutions.

One area where the long-form census provided value was in the department’s work with Local Health Integration Networks (LHINs) in Ontario, particularly with a project that took in Scarborough and parts of eastern Ontario.

His department used data from the census to produce maps showing where the demand for services was the greatest, allowing the LHINs to work with their respective suppliers to meet those demands.

“One of the major concerns with health care,” Carter said, “is that it is relatively easy to measure utilization but how do we measure the true demand for it? The long-form census is a valuable asset for that.”

Carter said “people are panicking about the baby boomers” reaching old age and the data from the long-form census will be invaluable in assessing their needs.

Associate Professor Alan Walks in the department of geography's program in planning said he used the long-form census “all the time. I’ve done a number of studies – inequality in Canadians cities; neighbourhood inequality and my current project is looking at the relationship between rising Canadian household indebtedness and inequality in Canadian cities.”

He has also looked at gentrification in cities and commuting patterns and the implications of using different modes of transportation.

“As a geographer and planner I have been interested in not only looking at these issues in kind of a macro perspective but looking at neighbourhoods. The long-form census has been absolutely integral to all of that” because of the high quality of the data at the neighbourhood level, he said.

When the long form was killed, “we couldn’t do a lot of things we normally do,” and had to rely on the 2006 census. It meant not being able to update Statistics Canada data at the neighbourhood level. The 2011 census was of little use to researchers, he said.

Re-establishing the longer form will allow his department to update previous research, Walks said, “and provide us with significant new data to find out how things are on the ground in Canadian cities today.”

The census “absolutely” has practical benefits, Walks said, and “it’s kind of ironic because the previous government was arguing against having the long form on privacy grounds, but municipalities, provinces, businesses, civil society organizations, universities said the data was useful, and there were very few reported cases of people complaining because of privacy issues. [Not having the long form] didn’t make any sense; it was actually harming Canadian business, harming the competitive aspect of businesses and entrepreneurs not to have this data.”

Timothy Chan, associate professor in the department of mechanical and industrial engineering, and director of the Centre for Healthcare Engineering, said he used the long-form census in a study to determine where defibrillators should be used in public places, examining population densities and high risk areas for cardiac arrest.

The long-form census, Chan said, is “extremely critical” in determining demographic trends. “The more granular the data, the better.”

Canada Next: what the new cabinet says about the country's future

sgupta — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 15:41:01 +0000

Canada Next: what the new cabinet says about the country's future sgupta Thu, 11/05/2015 - 10:41

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his newly appointed cabinet (photo courtesy Foreign Affairs, Trade & Development Canada)

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David Soberman: “Typically this country has been run by white males. The reality is that white males represent a minority of the Canadian population.”

The swearing-in of a new federal cabinet is the beginning of a massive shift in the way Canada will be governed, several experts at the University of Toronto say.

�Թϱ�� interviewed the professors after Justin Trudeau was sworn in as prime minister at Rideau Hall on Nov. 4, followed by 30 members of his cabinet.

Read about the �Թϱ�� members of cabinet

Providing analysis of the new government were Tony Dean, a professor in the teaching stream at the School of Public Policy and Governance, Robert Schertzer, an associate professor in the department of political science and Professor David Soberman of �Թϱ��'s Rotman School of Management.

Dean, a former secretary of the Ontario cabinet and head of the Ontario Public Service, said “I think we’ve seen today an affirmation of the signals that were sent during the election campaign and election night – a government with a completely different style, one that is more open and inclusive. That is a decision only a prime minister can make.”

The practical application of that, Dean said, will see “the government engaging with more people, the civil service and communities across Canada” when it comes to formulating new policy.

“That is a very fresh and exciting message that will be well received by federal public servants.”

Dean said Trudeau’s plans constitute a “shift back to the more traditional way of governing, both internally and externally” allowing Canadians “to help the government in [policy] breakthroughs.”

He was particularly pleased at the make-up of the cabinet committees, including one on diversity and inclusion. Not only did Trudeau appoint 15 women to cabinet, important portfolios went to visible minorities and First Nations representatives, including Harjit Sajjan in defence and Jody Wilson-Raybould in justice.

Considering the ties between Trudeau’s office and the �Թϱ��, including alumna Katie Telford – the new PM’s chief of staff – Dean predicted that the government will be offering employment to graduates of political sciences programs here.

Schertzer, who served as chair of the Association for the Study of Ethnicity and Nationalism in 2009-10, said Trudeau’s statement that “government by cabinet is back” means cabinet ministers will be in the spotlight on some major issues, with much more independence than under the Stephen Harper government.

The new cabinet contains five �Թϱ�� alumni – Dr. Jane Philpott is Minster of Health; Catherine McKenna is Minister of the Environment and Climate Change; Kirsty Duncan is Minister of Science; Dr. Carolyn Bennett is Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs and Dominic LeBlanc is Government House Leader.

“It is a strong front bench,” Schertzer said. “The cabinet is certainly younger and gender equity was a driving force” behind Trudeau’s choices. Many good people were left out but other jobs remain available, including junior positions such as cabinet secretaries (parliamentary assistants who often respond in Question Period when the ministers aren’t available).

Trudeau’s commitment to consult widely, including such things as inviting the provincial premiers to accompany him to Paris at the end of the month for a climate change conference, is laudable, but Schertzer said “consultations can get complex very fast” given the lack of consensus on some major issues.

Trudeau said after the swearing-in that the cabinet “is what Canada looks like.”

Soberman agreed, saying “this is one of the most diverse cabinets in Canadian history. Typically this country has been run by white males. The reality is that white males represent a minority of the Canadian population and having a cabinet that is more representative in terms of gender and aboriginal people (among other things) is wonderful. Having a cabinet that is more representative of Canadians will tend to be more sensitive to the needs of groups who historically have suffered.”

Soberman said “the cabinet is geographically balanced (every province and one minister from Nunavut) and this is a benefit of having strong representation across the country. While the Liberals have most of their seats from Central Canada and the East Coast, they have 50 seats west of Ontario and this only marginally less than the number held by the Conservatives. The cabinet is more diverse in terms of the professions that people have. There are also fewer career politicians by virtue of having so many new faces in Parliament. Other professions are represented (journalists, teachers, soldiers, and astronauts, for example) in addition to lawyers who historically have made up a significant percentage of cabinet ministers.”

It is noteworthy, Soberman said “that Wilson-Raybould, a former B.C. regional First Nations chief was made the Minister of Justice and Attorney General. It is important that Trudeau chose a First Nations person to handle a portfolio with many challenging issues that directly involve First Nation people including continuing investigations into the residential schools, police treatment of First Nations people or the investigation of missing First Nations women. I think this is a good thing.”

Trudeau kept two portfolios for himself: Youth and Intergovernmental Affairs.

“Keeping these as part of the prime minister’s responsibility underlines how important these roles are to him,” Soberman said. “First, Trudeau won the election largely because of strong support from young voters, he himself is one of our youngest prime ministers and he is committed to making government policy more sensitive to the needs of youth.

“Secondly I think that intergovernmental affairs have been frosty under Harper especially with [Ontario] Premier Kathleen Wynne, the leader of Canada’s most populous province and second with the new NDP premier of Alberta, Rachel Notley. By taking on this role himself, he is giving people the message that he wants to have a more cooperative working relationship with the provinces.”

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Predicting tornadoes months or even seasons in advance

dp_sunny — Thu, 13 Aug 2015 13:53:53 +0000

Predicting tornadoes months or even seasons in advance

dp_sunny Thu, 08/13/2015 - 09:53

Don Campbell

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Don Campbell

Canada Next

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Forecasting model developed at �Թϱ�� could help with disaster planning, building codes

A new model for predicting tornado activity could allow experts to prepare forecasts months or even seasons in advance, researchers at the University of Toronto say.

“The aim is to predict ahead to the following year or subsequent years about whether we’ll get above or below average tornado activity in a given area,” said Vincent Cheng, a postdoctoral fellow in the Ecological Modelling Lab at the University of Toronto Scarborough (UTSC).

Developed by Cheng, Professor George Arhonditsis and Professor Bill Gough in UTSC’s Climate Lab along with colleagues at Environment Canada, the model uses large-scale atmospheric variables like those used by weather forecasters. But instead of trying to predict a tornado on any specific day, it looks at variations in monthly and seasonal tornado activity relative to changes in atmospheric conditions over the same period.

Cheng said the model predicts how different conditions in the atmosphere during a thunderstorm will affect the risk of a tornado. The key variables the model relies on includes the instability of the atmosphere and vertical windshear, which is the change in wind speed and wind direction at different heights. These variables are important since there’s a much higher risk of a tornado taking place when air is able to rise quickly coupled with a big change in wind speed and direction at different heights above the ground.

Cheng’s model also takes into account the lack of accurate records in tracking tornadoes. Tornado reports rely solely on eyewitness observations, which means they’re better monitored in more populated areas. The model bypasses that by showing the strong relationship between atmospheric variables and actual tornado occurrences.

The result sheds light on why actual tornado activity in Canada is vastly underestimated.

“From observations there are only about 60 reported tornadoes in Canada per year, but that number is more like 150,” said Cheng (pictured below). “When we apply the model to areas where the monitoring network is lacking we find the greatest difference is in the Northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies.”

[photo of Vincent Cheng with computer screens showing tornado]

Cheng said there is also a significant data gap in northwestern Ontario and that more attention should be paid to that part of the province. The model is explained in a research paper that was published in the journal Nature Communications.

While much remains unknown about how tornadoes actually form, when one does it produces a narrow, violently rotating channel of air that runs from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. They are one of nature’s most hazardous weather events, capable of causing significant destruction and devastation including severe injuries or death.

Canada is second only to the United States in the number of tornadoes experienced, with more than half of them ocurring in the Prairies and Northern Ontario and a third in Southern Ontario.

The goal, said Cheng, is to be able to predict whether there will be above-average or below-average tornado activity in a given area over a given time. This information can play an important role in disaster planning or determining how resistant to tornadoes buildings need to be in a given area.

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